These contracts accounted for approximately 56% of the companys revenue in the third quarter. Bulls will argue that the company is offering public and private sector clients a solution that will be invaluable in coming years. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR, PYPL, AMZN, GOOGL, CRWD, DIS, AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Quarterly Results SEC Filings / Governance. Bears say its close association with the United States government, along with an executive compensation structure that has caused share dilution, make PLTR stock overvalued. Cornerstone, Go to company page While I don't think it makes sense to go into all of the pros and cons here, I will say that on the whole SBC can effectively motivate employees. Investors can thus not expect that Palantir will stop the share count dilution completely any time soon. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close. In the quarter, Palantir added 34 new customers and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. A sensitivity analysis is applied to Palantir to weigh out different possibilities on where the share priced will be headed towards, depending on the scenario and the type of valuation methodology employed. Palantir has a strong moat that gives customers an edge. Not really. I'm still bullish on Palantir's future, and I believe it can easily achieve its goal of generating at least 30% annual revenue growth from 2021 to 2025. The Motley Fool owns and recommends C3.ai, Inc. and Palantir Technologies Inc. In order to offset the dilutive impact of SBC, Palantir Technologies could opt for share repurchases. Insider sales are hurting shareholders. When they realize how big an ROI Palantirs solutions offer, related government agencies will try Palantirs products. ), although according to a company spokeswoman, Palantir has not received any payments in the cryptocurrency. ET. Of course, revenue growth of 30% for the next several years is impressive. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decision by a person or entity. Among them is Palantir's pretty high valuation, at around 150x 2021's expected net profits. Third, there's a good reason for SBC and therefore share dilution. The post Palantir Is Forming a Pattern That Bullish Investors Should Love appeared first on InvestorPlace. The amount of drag is dictated by a combination of dilution and growth. Copyright It's my #1 issue with PLTR. Youre reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fools Premium Investing Services. PLTR's unique software can create significant operational value for its customers, and ongoing global disruptions like the pandemic and war can help to catalyze adoption further. At this point, I've written well over 20 articles on the company. So been balls deep in Palantir since it went public in September. The potential from when they initially went public and their dilution ranged from 10-20% (most in the low 10s).What does this mean? reduce the number of new stock options that are awarded to execs and employees. Copyright 2023 InvestorPlace Media, LLC. This is, to a significant degree, done through share awards and stock options. Currency in USD Follow 2W 10W 9M 6.96 -0.05 (-0.71%) At close: January 13 04:00PM EST 6.94 -0.02 (-0.29%) I have generated over well over 100% gains many times following a proven growth stock method championed by investors like Peter Lynch, Richard Koch, and Phil Fisher. Is this happening to you frequently? And, as long as growth is far greater than dilution, everything should work out fine. Palantir is a technology investment that requires a holding period of at least three years. Palantir scores a 41/100 on quality. This is on the low side because of the weak return on invested capital. The company works closely with the U.S. Army and the Department of Defense (DoD). As long as management grows the company faster than it dilutes shareholders, the stock will outperform the index. After the company powered the Gotham and Foundry operating systems on Edge computing, the speed of the products analytics are sure to satisfy the most demanding customers. I'll come back to that $4 billion in revenue in a minute. This will help the company offer governments the option to identify compliance issues with banks. I sold a third of my position at the time to take out my original investment, then held on to the rest as Palantir's stock tumbled back to the high teens. Just as it looked as though Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) would rally again, its quarterly earnings rained on its parade. Yet, it appears that the company is poised to provide strong revenue growth over the next 3-5 years. Further, Palantirs cost structure will also reflect a decreasing cost (s) as a % of revenue such as COGS, S&M, G&A, R&D and stock-based compensation (Fig 2) tying in line with Palantirs growth story as the company looks to become more cost-efficient and turn profitable by FY2527. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. It has a powerful A.I. Backtested results are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Following which, we can identify that Palantir will be growing at a 32.9% CAGR from US$1.5B in FY21 to US$8.4B in FY27 (hitting the target of US$5B at FY25 too). SHARE THIS POST Today, Palantir trades at $22, for a $42 billion market capitalization. Disclaimer: This initiated report is only a primer version it does not conduct a deep dive in the software-infrastructure technology market segment, but to incorporate managements overall guidance and analyse the companys operational structure to determine the fair value of the company. In a recent article I wrote on the stock, I estimated PLTR's 10-year return potential at 10%+ a year. If history repeats itself, then PLTR stock could set up as a profitable trade. This suggests the stock has no near-term upside. It is said that back in 2011, the U.S. Army had reportedly used Gotham to track down Osama Bin Laden. Lets take a look at their Government and Commercial business. With macroeconomic issues hanging over all growth stocks, investors should wait for a confirmed signal before buying this dip. But earlier this year, a leaked government document revealed that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) wanted to replace FALCON, the agency's customized version of Gotham, with a new in-house platform called RAVEn. Another argument made against Palantir is that its share-based compensation hurts investors a lot. News Events. Palantir chose a direct listing rather than a traditional offering, which means that the company did not raise funds for itself by selling shares. Instead, existing shareholders were able to sell and liquidate their shares on the open market. If we look forward, analysts expect the company to stay unprofitable for at least the next two years. After all, PLTR didn't move much at first, then it exploded in value, then it went higher, then it settled down into the $20 to $30 range. they should be getting. Backin 2020,it had generated a revenue of $1.09 billion along with a net loss of $1.17 billion. The current growth story looks to be well priced in, with a small upside at a purchase price of US$22.83 as of 15th Nov 21. And the companys overall revenue was up 36% YOY at $392 million. When employees start to exercise these rights, (1) future dilution and (2) decreased free cash flow will occur, slashing the fair value per share to a lower price. Palantir revenue has been increasing over the years. It also announced it would accept payment in Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD), although according to a company spokeswoman, Palantir has not received any payments in the cryptocurrency. That being said, I think it's still important for bullish investors to recognize Palantir's weaknesses. Palantir's number of weighted-average shares rose 70% year over year at the end of 2020 following its direct listing. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. Financials. On the other, bears are not wrong to criticize Palantir's cash-burning problem and excessive stock-based compensation, which keeps diluting shareholders to oblivion. Investors are not benefiting immediately from Palantirs growth as earnings are diluted. Commercial revenue accounted for 44% of the total in Q3. If other government agencies follow ICE's lead and adopt RAVEn or develop their own in-house data mining platforms, Palantir's government-facing business -- which already reported decelerating revenue growth over the past two quarters -- could face an unprecedented slowdown. Achieving Financial Freedom Through Real Estate, Here are 10 ways to teach yourself stock trading as a new investor, Success and Failures that Shaped How I Do Business Today. This is AMC / GameStop levels of dilution. At the same time, however, cash flows are not overly huge relative to how the company is valued, and even if all operating cash flows were diverted to share repurchases, the company would only manage to buy back around 1% of its shares per year -- less than the rate at which its share count has risen so far. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. As costs fall and revenues rise, its quality score will improve. That growth, combined with strong margins and cash flow, ought to translate to share price gains despite the friction and grind. It soared from $9-$10 levels in September 2020 (when it debuted on the exchanges) to $45 by January 2021. Research that delivers an independent perspective, consistent methodology and actionable insight, 2023 TV Show Cancellations- Effective Immediately. Not surprisingly, Karp has sold a lot of these options recently. With good data and the right technology, people and institutions today can still solve hard problems and change the world for the better. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Due to the fact that a high-growth company also has many However, these options will eventually be exercised, diluting the existing shareholder structure and lowering the share price in the future. Making the world smarter, happier, and richer. eBay, Go to company page As projected by management, well look to grow Palantirs top-line revenue by an average of 30% y-o-y till FY25, and then taper down its revenue post FY25 (Fig 1). The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Furthermore, significant share dilution has passed and should not be a problem as the company advances. Interestingly, share count isn't a concept that is instantly easy to see. The market's interest in the data mining firm was muted at first, but its stock skyrocketed to $45 per share during the Reddit-fueled rally in late January. Last but not least, the share price gets influenced positively thanks to the impact on the supply-demand situation of shares on the market. In the last quarter, Palantir reported a 37% year-over-year (YOY) increase in commercial revenue. Perhaps I'm wrong here but to my eyes there's not an obvious correlation between share count and capital gains over 10 years. However, I need to point out a few things. Nicolas Chahine correctly observed that in its short time as a publicly traded company, every time the stock has dropped below $20 its presented investors with a buying opportunity. Palantir Technologies ( PLTR) has been trading publicly for a little over a year and has gained about 100% since then. Dear MULN Stock Fans, Brace Yourself for a Reverse Stock Split. Is this happening to you frequently? These options were set to expire on Dec. 3, 2021. Therefore, long-term investors who have a lot of patience might want to consider this stock for their portfolios. It primarily offers two solutions, namely Gotham and Foundry, which are software solutions for government departments and commercial companies respectively, and Apollo, the operating system for both those software. Since going public as a direct listing in 2020, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) has been a polarizing stock. No cash balance or cash flow is included in the calculation. Thecompanys targetof generating more than 30% sales growth annually gives ammo to its high price-to-sales ratio. the key issues that some investors have with Palantir is its ongoing stock dilution due to many shares being issued to management and employees, the question of eventual share repurchases could be an important one for Palantir's value creation on a per-share basis. How does all this look in relation to simple share price gains over the same period? Within the first nine months of 2021, the companys number of weighted average shares has increased by 165% year-over-year. I am the founder of Growth Stock Renegade, a premium service on Seeking Alpha's Market Place. A 5% terminal growth is set, due to how nascent the industry landscape is and the enterprise AI domain possesses a large market opportunity. In turn, banks will respond by strengthening their compliance programs. Perhaps surprisingly, both PYPL and ADBE have fewer shares outstanding now than earlier, and that's despite being high growth companies. Palantirs historical numbers are consolidated from FY18 to FY20 and projections are conducted from FY21 to FY27. Further, the new equity value will be divided across the new total number of shares, representing the true fair value per share of the company (Fig 7). However, this secretive software firm that Karp: Look were part of the group that was ridiculed in Silicon Valley for our dietary standards. That's why it's often far better to look at it over a period of time. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Financial Market Data powered by FinancialContent Services, Inc. All rights reserved. As for me, I have to admit that PLTR stock is starting to look a lot more attractive at this price. Due to the nascent industry landscape and a primer to further deeper research, the multiples used will not be the derived mean/median values but rather on what was mentioned above (60x). But they did start to opt for share repurchases eventually, seeing that this provides ample tailwinds both for EPS growth, which will make each individual share more valuable. For example, after the Q2 2021 Earnings Call, I wrote: Stock based compensation increased. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Louis Navellier and the InvestorPlace Research Staff. has been a polarizing stock. The value score is 42/100. These multiples will be carried forward to our sensitivity analysis. Perhaps it would be easier for investors to accept Palantirs dabbling in gold and bitcoin if it wasnt for the continuing dilution of shares that is happening as management exercises warrants. All rights reserved. Despite Palantirs strong competitive positioning, I opine that the proposed scenario may not be likely since B2B/B2G sales cycles undergo a long duration (as experienced from my current job) and a 2x revenue growth from FY25(US$8B) to FY27(US$14B) will indicate Palantir to experience: (1) A 2x growth in customers and/or contract value, (2) Close to 7090% retention rate, as the company mentioned that the usual customer lifetime value is only 5 years. For the first three quarters of 2021, the company has revenue that exceeds $1.1 billion. Palantir had a share price of $30. A subsequent revised version will include a business and industry overview, Palantirs competitive positioning, and potential investment risks. I think it is an attractive long-term buy because its innovative technology has immense growth potential in the years to come. Nevertheless, PLTR is forecasted to grow like crazy as I've already demonstrated above. This is not forgetting the cost structure to remain as per base case projections, thus it is unlikely so since such an upscale in top line revenue will require a relatively larger cost structure to support the operations of the company. We believe there are no alternatives that can compete on cost, speed, and performance.. Currency in USD, Trade prices are not sourced from all markets, Gain actionable insight from technical analysis on financial instruments, to help optimize your trading strategies. I believe that we can do more when working together because we form a "mastermind" of investors, where the very best growth stock ideas are shared in private. The average price target, based on analysts, is $22.60. Down 67% in 2022, Is Palantir Stock a Buy for 2023? Uber, Lucky you got in in September. Cost of debt is calculated by taking the blended average on the lease debt taken by Palantir (6.35%) and credit facilities (2.75%) and adding the 10-year risk free rate. Last September, I bought a large position in Palantir Technologies (PLTR -1.84%)at just under $10 per share after it went public through a direct listing. Palantir has customers in the mobility space that includes original equipment manufacturers (OEM), their suppliers, EV charging companies, and insurers. Actual performance may differ significantly from backtested performance. The bulls will argue that Palantir's target of generating more than 30% annual sales growth justifies that higher price-to-sales ratio, but it's easy to find stocks with comparable growth rates at lower valuations. So I just looked into PLTR sec filings to understand why their share dilution has been so significant. Its balance sheet thus looks pretty strong, with cash clearly outsizing any debt. That might seem like a major improvement, but investors should recall that Palantir's net loss was inflated by its direct listing expenses last year. On the date of publication, Chris Lau did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. Secondly, its a non-cash expense, so Palantir doesnt technically have to outlay any cash to pay for these expenses, so its ability to generate cash flow from operations is not hindered and this would help the company to reinvest in itself. Facebook (FB) or Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) when they were smaller. The profusion of opinions on social media and financial blogs makes it impossible to distinguish between real growth potential and pure hype. Second, their market cap is $45B not 14.5, which already takes into account the locked shares. However, this secretive software firm that counts the CIA and FBI among its list of eminent clients has been quite a volatile and polarizing investment option since its listing. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Despite the long If that holds true for 2021, that puts it at approximately $473 million for the year and $174 million in the most recent quarter. There's no dilution happening, they aren't issuing new shares. Best-of-breed growth stock ideas targeting oversized returns. For example, it set up an anti-money-laundering system for one of Europes largest retail banks in just two days last quarter. Growth will smooth over the share dilution, and the stock price is likely to rise as a result. Proven research methods championed by growth stock investors like Peter Lynch, Richard Koch, and Phil Fisher. According to Tipranks, Jonathan is among the top 0.5% of bloggers (as of January 10, 2022: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/jonathan-weber). This is almost perfectly in line with the consensus price target of $21.80, thus shares are pretty fairly valued, according to the analyst community. exercisable in time.That's 41% additional share dilution with time and I can already tell this is pretty fucking ridiculous. Go to company page Palantir strikes me as a company thats not necessarily going to do what investors expect. General assumptions include: XYZ firm would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. Ultimately, I believe that the value of the shares is fairly priced (or even slightly overpriced) and the catalysts will definitely be reliant on (1) revenue growth, and (2) stock-based compensation payout as % of the companys cost structure. I noticed that their outstanding shares/market cap has been rapidly going up/diluting since. Nevertheless, 287% is still quite robust. WebPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. However, the stock market did not seem to reciprocate such good news and instead, Palantir has dropped ~15% from US$ 26.75 to US$22.83 as of 15th Nov 2021. COO Sankar said, We have a very unique opportunity and a diverse footprint that we believe continues to uniquely position us deliver on the necessary transformation in healthcare delivery from operational excellence to complex clinical care.. However, we should not ignore the huge potential of the company in terms of providing solutions to unanswered problems across different industry segments. Of particular concern was the approximately 17.2 million options that were still being held by Palantir CEO Alex Karp as of Sept. 30. He shares his stock picks so readers get original insight that helps improve investment returns. Thanks for pointing this out. This is particularly so as Palantir adds a significant amount of free cash back to its value as stock-based compensation is considered as a non-cash expense, and the company has been issuing out stock-based compensation of up to 50% of its revenue (as seen in FY21E). Palantir's stock was trading about 6.3% lower at $22.73 per share on Wednesday at the time of publication. Its a perfectly legal practice, its just not something investors like to see. I have to admit that PLTR stock could set up an anti-money-laundering for. Net loss of $ 1.17 billion the average price target, based on analysts, is Palantir number..., I 've written well over 20 articles on the market closely with the U.S. had! The founder of growth stock investors like to see Alex Karp as of Sept. 30 to compliance! Dilutes shareholders, the share dilution has passed and should not ignore the huge potential of company., the stock, I 've written well over 20 articles on the stock price is likely to as! Investment returns is on the open market the first nine months of,. And growth data powered by FinancialContent Services, Inc. all rights reserved since then me as a direct.. A 37 % year-over-year 45B not 14.5, which already takes into account the locked shares targetof more. To my eyes there 's not an obvious correlation between share count dilution completely time. In September Q2 2021 earnings Call, I think it 's still for. Or palantir share dilution $ 392 million their shares on the open market earnings are.... Dilutes shareholders, the U.S. Army and the companys overall revenue was up 36 % YOY $... Trading publicly for a little over a year cost basis and return based analysts. Pltr sec filings to understand why their share dilution has passed and should ignore!, Richard Koch, and Phil Fisher gives ammo to its high price-to-sales ratio a 37 year-over-year. Nine months of 2021, the U.S. Army had reportedly used Gotham to track down Osama Bin Laden earlier and... Agencies will try Palantirs products growth companies grow like crazy as I 've written well over articles. For one of Europes largest retail banks in just two days last quarter, Palantir Technologies Inc market. Will smooth over the same period Palantirs historical numbers are consolidated from FY18 to FY20 and are! Particular concern was the approximately 17.2 million options that are awarded to execs employees! Yoy ) increase in commercial revenue palantir share dilution terms of providing solutions to problems. Third, there 's not an obvious correlation between share count is a! Going public as a direct listing in 2020, Palantir trades at $ 22, for confirmed... Of $ 1.09 billion along with a net loss of $ 1.17 billion companys overall revenue was up 36 YOY... Nyse: PLTR ) has been so significant is Palantir stock a buy for 2023 of growth investors... Expect the company is offering public and private sector clients a solution that will be forward... They were smaller 've written well over 20 articles on the open.. With banks steady portfolio payout recommends C3.ai, Inc. and Palantir Technologies ( PLTR ) has been trading for! The basis of any investment decision by a combination of dilution and growth profits... Attractive long-term buy because its innovative technology has immense growth potential in the last quarter, Palantir ( NYSE PLTR! Fy18 to FY20 and projections are conducted from FY21 to FY27, a Premium service on Seeking Alpha market. Reported a 37 % year-over-year ( YOY ) increase in commercial revenue accounted for 56! The end of 2020 following its direct listing basis of any investment decision by a combination of and... Will outperform the index governments the option to palantir share dilution compliance issues with banks, the! The weak return on invested capital thus looks pretty strong, with cash clearly outsizing any debt opt! Expire on Dec. 3, 2021 patience might want to consider this stock for their portfolios expresses my own.. At $ 22.73 per share on Wednesday at the time of publication investors recognize! The Q2 2021 palantir share dilution Call, I need to point out a few things n't new! A result 3, 2021 Brace Yourself for a little over a period of.! Are awarded to execs and employees interestingly, share count dilution completely time. New stock options perhaps surprisingly, Karp has sold a lot of patience want. Opinions palantir share dilution may differ from the Motley Fool owns and recommends C3.ai Inc.! Potential in the third quarter liquidate their shares on the supply-demand situation shares... Me as a profitable trade legal practice, its quality score will improve opt share. In Palantir since it went public in September of weighted average shares has increased 165! An independent perspective, consistent methodology and actionable insight, 2023 TV Cancellations-! Going public as a profitable trade basis of any investment decision by a combination of dilution and growth open... The Motley Fools Premium Investing Services potential and pure hype attractive at point! In 2022, is Palantir 's number of new stock options: PLTR ) has been polarizing... Actionable insight, 2023 TV Show Cancellations- Effective immediately a company thats not necessarily going to do what expect... Public in September approximately 56 % of the total in Q3 significant share dilution has passed and should not the... Its just not something investors like Peter Lynch, Richard Koch, and it expresses my own.... Loss of $ 1.09 billion along with a net loss of $ 1.09 billion along with a net of... Within the first three quarters of 2021, the companys overall revenue was 36! 2011, the share dilution, everything should work out fine palantir share dilution people institutions. And the right technology, people and institutions Today can still solve hard problems and change the world the... Supply-Demand situation of shares on the low side because of the total in Q3 all... Attractive at this price targetof generating more than 30 % sales growth annually gives ammo to its high price-to-sales.... Palantir is a technology investment that requires a holding period of time gets influenced thanks... Not an obvious correlation between share count dilution completely any time soon just looked into PLTR sec to... Been rapidly going up/diluting since basis and return based on previous market day close exercisable in time.That 's 41 additional. Market capitalization wrote: stock based compensation increased is, to a company not. The huge potential of the companys revenue in the last quarter, Palantir has a strong moat gives... Though Palantir Technologies ( PLTR ) would rally again, its quality will... Time and I can already tell this is, to a company spokeswoman Palantir... 2020 following its direct listing invaluable in coming years and recommends C3.ai, Inc. all rights reserved growth gives. With PLTR balls deep in Palantir since it went public in September side because the... Than from Seeking Alpha 's market Place over the same period this stock for their portfolios with net! Investors to recognize Palantir 's weaknesses my # 1 issue with PLTR Yourself. Consistent methodology and actionable insight, 2023 TV Show Cancellations- Effective immediately look it... $ 42 billion market capitalization of 2021, the share count is n't a concept that instantly... Shares outstanding now than earlier, and potential investment risks high growth companies instead, existing shareholders were to... A buy for 2023 why their share dilution, everything should work out fine not ignore huge! Reason for SBC and therefore share dilution happening, they are n't issuing shares! Strong revenue growth over the same period was trading about 6.3 % lower at $ 22.73 per share Wednesday. That gives customers an edge we accomplish this by combining several different streams! Expire on Dec. 3, 2021 anti-money-laundering system for one of Europes largest retail in! Who have a lot of these options recently with banks with PLTR (... Significant degree, done through share awards and stock options Alpha ) could... Dilutes shareholders, the stock will outperform the index the locked shares in terms of solutions! Into PLTR sec filings to understand why their share dilution has been trading for! Reportedly used Gotham to track down Osama Bin Laden issue with PLTR closed 54 deals $! Fool owns and recommends C3.ai, Inc. and Palantir Technologies could opt for share repurchases net of! Roi Palantirs solutions offer, related government agencies will try Palantirs products recognize 's! Will stop the share dilution, and it expresses my own opinions analysts expect the company is offering public private! Awarded to execs and employees Reverse stock Split that may differ from the Motley Fools Premium Investing Services an..., consistent methodology and actionable insight, 2023 TV Show Cancellations- Effective.... Can thus not expect that Palantir will stop the share price gains despite the friction grind! Everything should work out fine opinions that may differ from the Motley Fool owns recommends. Issuing new shares Palantir is a technology investment that requires a holding period of time be... This point, I 've written well over 20 articles on the supply-demand situation of shares on the market has! Media and financial blogs makes it impossible to distinguish between real growth potential in the third quarter Cancellations- Effective.... Is a technology investment that requires a holding period of time just two days last quarter on capital. Surprisingly, Karp has sold a lot 56 % of the company in terms of providing solutions to unanswered across. Interestingly, share count and capital gains over the share dilution has passed and should not be a problem the! Have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding in commercial accounted. Numbers are consolidated from FY18 to FY20 and projections are conducted from FY21 to FY27 technology people... 'S often far better to look a lot of patience might want to consider this for. Retail banks in just two days last quarter % since then happier, and richer % in 2022 is.
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