In a study by Mekasha et al. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. 2013). Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. 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Although there is a positive trend in the annual total rainfall, the number of consecutive wet (dry) days decreases (increases). 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). 2016). This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. 2014). The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. As shown in Figure2, during the period 19802014 the seasonal rainfall trend of the Beressa watershed for the kiremit season shows less rainfall variability throughout the study periods. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. Figure 1. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. Previous Topic. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. (2011) and Manandhar et al. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Here are the average temperatures. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. 2015). The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. 2012; Fazzini et al. The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. 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