These contracts accounted for approximately 56% of the companys revenue in the third quarter. Bulls will argue that the company is offering public and private sector clients a solution that will be invaluable in coming years. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR, PYPL, AMZN, GOOGL, CRWD, DIS, AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Quarterly Results SEC Filings / Governance. Bears say its close association with the United States government, along with an executive compensation structure that has caused share dilution, make PLTR stock overvalued. Cornerstone, Go to company page While I don't think it makes sense to go into all of the pros and cons here, I will say that on the whole SBC can effectively motivate employees. Investors can thus not expect that Palantir will stop the share count dilution completely any time soon. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close. In the quarter, Palantir added 34 new customers and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. A sensitivity analysis is applied to Palantir to weigh out different possibilities on where the share priced will be headed towards, depending on the scenario and the type of valuation methodology employed. Palantir has a strong moat that gives customers an edge. Not really. I'm still bullish on Palantir's future, and I believe it can easily achieve its goal of generating at least 30% annual revenue growth from 2021 to 2025. The Motley Fool owns and recommends C3.ai, Inc. and Palantir Technologies Inc. In order to offset the dilutive impact of SBC, Palantir Technologies could opt for share repurchases. Insider sales are hurting shareholders. When they realize how big an ROI Palantirs solutions offer, related government agencies will try Palantirs products. ), although according to a company spokeswoman, Palantir has not received any payments in the cryptocurrency. ET. Of course, revenue growth of 30% for the next several years is impressive. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decision by a person or entity. Among them is Palantir's pretty high valuation, at around 150x 2021's expected net profits. Third, there's a good reason for SBC and therefore share dilution. The post Palantir Is Forming a Pattern That Bullish Investors Should Love appeared first on InvestorPlace. The amount of drag is dictated by a combination of dilution and growth. Copyright It's my #1 issue with PLTR. Youre reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fools Premium Investing Services. PLTR's unique software can create significant operational value for its customers, and ongoing global disruptions like the pandemic and war can help to catalyze adoption further. At this point, I've written well over 20 articles on the company. So been balls deep in Palantir since it went public in September. The potential from when they initially went public and their dilution ranged from 10-20% (most in the low 10s).What does this mean? reduce the number of new stock options that are awarded to execs and employees. Copyright 2023 InvestorPlace Media, LLC. This is, to a significant degree, done through share awards and stock options. Currency in USD Follow 2W 10W 9M 6.96 -0.05 (-0.71%) At close: January 13 04:00PM EST 6.94 -0.02 (-0.29%) I have generated over well over 100% gains many times following a proven growth stock method championed by investors like Peter Lynch, Richard Koch, and Phil Fisher. Is this happening to you frequently? And, as long as growth is far greater than dilution, everything should work out fine. Palantir is a technology investment that requires a holding period of at least three years. Palantir scores a 41/100 on quality. This is on the low side because of the weak return on invested capital. The company works closely with the U.S. Army and the Department of Defense (DoD). As long as management grows the company faster than it dilutes shareholders, the stock will outperform the index. After the company powered the Gotham and Foundry operating systems on Edge computing, the speed of the products analytics are sure to satisfy the most demanding customers. I'll come back to that $4 billion in revenue in a minute. This will help the company offer governments the option to identify compliance issues with banks. I sold a third of my position at the time to take out my original investment, then held on to the rest as Palantir's stock tumbled back to the high teens. Just as it looked as though Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) would rally again, its quarterly earnings rained on its parade. Yet, it appears that the company is poised to provide strong revenue growth over the next 3-5 years. Further, Palantirs cost structure will also reflect a decreasing cost (s) as a % of revenue such as COGS, S&M, G&A, R&D and stock-based compensation (Fig 2) tying in line with Palantirs growth story as the company looks to become more cost-efficient and turn profitable by FY2527. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. It has a powerful A.I. Backtested results are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. Following which, we can identify that Palantir will be growing at a 32.9% CAGR from US$1.5B in FY21 to US$8.4B in FY27 (hitting the target of US$5B at FY25 too). SHARE THIS POST Today, Palantir trades at $22, for a $42 billion market capitalization. Disclaimer: This initiated report is only a primer version it does not conduct a deep dive in the software-infrastructure technology market segment, but to incorporate managements overall guidance and analyse the companys operational structure to determine the fair value of the company. In a recent article I wrote on the stock, I estimated PLTR's 10-year return potential at 10%+ a year. If history repeats itself, then PLTR stock could set up as a profitable trade. This suggests the stock has no near-term upside. It is said that back in 2011, the U.S. Army had reportedly used Gotham to track down Osama Bin Laden. Lets take a look at their Government and Commercial business. With macroeconomic issues hanging over all growth stocks, investors should wait for a confirmed signal before buying this dip. But earlier this year, a leaked government document revealed that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) wanted to replace FALCON, the agency's customized version of Gotham, with a new in-house platform called RAVEn. Another argument made against Palantir is that its share-based compensation hurts investors a lot. News Events. Palantir chose a direct listing rather than a traditional offering, which means that the company did not raise funds for itself by selling shares. Instead, existing shareholders were able to sell and liquidate their shares on the open market. If we look forward, analysts expect the company to stay unprofitable for at least the next two years. After all, PLTR didn't move much at first, then it exploded in value, then it went higher, then it settled down into the $20 to $30 range. they should be getting. Backin 2020,it had generated a revenue of $1.09 billion along with a net loss of $1.17 billion. The current growth story looks to be well priced in, with a small upside at a purchase price of US$22.83 as of 15th Nov 21. And the companys overall revenue was up 36% YOY at $392 million. When employees start to exercise these rights, (1) future dilution and (2) decreased free cash flow will occur, slashing the fair value per share to a lower price. Palantir revenue has been increasing over the years. It also announced it would accept payment in Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD), although according to a company spokeswoman, Palantir has not received any payments in the cryptocurrency. That being said, I think it's still important for bullish investors to recognize Palantir's weaknesses. Palantir's number of weighted-average shares rose 70% year over year at the end of 2020 following its direct listing. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. Financials. On the other, bears are not wrong to criticize Palantir's cash-burning problem and excessive stock-based compensation, which keeps diluting shareholders to oblivion. Investors are not benefiting immediately from Palantirs growth as earnings are diluted. Commercial revenue accounted for 44% of the total in Q3. If other government agencies follow ICE's lead and adopt RAVEn or develop their own in-house data mining platforms, Palantir's government-facing business -- which already reported decelerating revenue growth over the past two quarters -- could face an unprecedented slowdown. Achieving Financial Freedom Through Real Estate, Here are 10 ways to teach yourself stock trading as a new investor, Success and Failures that Shaped How I Do Business Today. This is AMC / GameStop levels of dilution. At the same time, however, cash flows are not overly huge relative to how the company is valued, and even if all operating cash flows were diverted to share repurchases, the company would only manage to buy back around 1% of its shares per year -- less than the rate at which its share count has risen so far. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. As costs fall and revenues rise, its quality score will improve. That growth, combined with strong margins and cash flow, ought to translate to share price gains despite the friction and grind. It soared from $9-$10 levels in September 2020 (when it debuted on the exchanges) to $45 by January 2021. Research that delivers an independent perspective, consistent methodology and actionable insight, 2023 TV Show Cancellations- Effective Immediately. Not surprisingly, Karp has sold a lot of these options recently. With good data and the right technology, people and institutions today can still solve hard problems and change the world for the better. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Due to the fact that a high-growth company also has many However, these options will eventually be exercised, diluting the existing shareholder structure and lowering the share price in the future. Making the world smarter, happier, and richer. eBay, Go to company page As projected by management, well look to grow Palantirs top-line revenue by an average of 30% y-o-y till FY25, and then taper down its revenue post FY25 (Fig 1). The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Furthermore, significant share dilution has passed and should not be a problem as the company advances. Interestingly, share count isn't a concept that is instantly easy to see. The market's interest in the data mining firm was muted at first, but its stock skyrocketed to $45 per share during the Reddit-fueled rally in late January. Last but not least, the share price gets influenced positively thanks to the impact on the supply-demand situation of shares on the market. In the last quarter, Palantir reported a 37% year-over-year (YOY) increase in commercial revenue. Perhaps I'm wrong here but to my eyes there's not an obvious correlation between share count and capital gains over 10 years. However, I need to point out a few things. Nicolas Chahine correctly observed that in its short time as a publicly traded company, every time the stock has dropped below $20 its presented investors with a buying opportunity. Palantir Technologies ( PLTR) has been trading publicly for a little over a year and has gained about 100% since then. Dear MULN Stock Fans, Brace Yourself for a Reverse Stock Split. Is this happening to you frequently? These options were set to expire on Dec. 3, 2021. Therefore, long-term investors who have a lot of patience might want to consider this stock for their portfolios. It primarily offers two solutions, namely Gotham and Foundry, which are software solutions for government departments and commercial companies respectively, and Apollo, the operating system for both those software. Since going public as a direct listing in 2020, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) has been a polarizing stock. No cash balance or cash flow is included in the calculation. Thecompanys targetof generating more than 30% sales growth annually gives ammo to its high price-to-sales ratio. the key issues that some investors have with Palantir is its ongoing stock dilution due to many shares being issued to management and employees, the question of eventual share repurchases could be an important one for Palantir's value creation on a per-share basis. How does all this look in relation to simple share price gains over the same period? Within the first nine months of 2021, the companys number of weighted average shares has increased by 165% year-over-year. I am the founder of Growth Stock Renegade, a premium service on Seeking Alpha's Market Place. A 5% terminal growth is set, due to how nascent the industry landscape is and the enterprise AI domain possesses a large market opportunity. In turn, banks will respond by strengthening their compliance programs. Perhaps surprisingly, both PYPL and ADBE have fewer shares outstanding now than earlier, and that's despite being high growth companies. Palantirs historical numbers are consolidated from FY18 to FY20 and projections are conducted from FY21 to FY27. Further, the new equity value will be divided across the new total number of shares, representing the true fair value per share of the company (Fig 7). However, this secretive software firm that Karp: Look were part of the group that was ridiculed in Silicon Valley for our dietary standards. That's why it's often far better to look at it over a period of time. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Financial Market Data powered by FinancialContent Services, Inc. All rights reserved. As for me, I have to admit that PLTR stock is starting to look a lot more attractive at this price. Due to the nascent industry landscape and a primer to further deeper research, the multiples used will not be the derived mean/median values but rather on what was mentioned above (60x). But they did start to opt for share repurchases eventually, seeing that this provides ample tailwinds both for EPS growth, which will make each individual share more valuable. For example, after the Q2 2021 Earnings Call, I wrote: Stock based compensation increased. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Louis Navellier and the InvestorPlace Research Staff. has been a polarizing stock. The value score is 42/100. These multiples will be carried forward to our sensitivity analysis. Perhaps it would be easier for investors to accept Palantirs dabbling in gold and bitcoin if it wasnt for the continuing dilution of shares that is happening as management exercises warrants. All rights reserved. Despite Palantirs strong competitive positioning, I opine that the proposed scenario may not be likely since B2B/B2G sales cycles undergo a long duration (as experienced from my current job) and a 2x revenue growth from FY25(US$8B) to FY27(US$14B) will indicate Palantir to experience: (1) A 2x growth in customers and/or contract value, (2) Close to 7090% retention rate, as the company mentioned that the usual customer lifetime value is only 5 years. For the first three quarters of 2021, the company has revenue that exceeds $1.1 billion. Palantir had a share price of $30. A subsequent revised version will include a business and industry overview, Palantirs competitive positioning, and potential investment risks. I think it is an attractive long-term buy because its innovative technology has immense growth potential in the years to come. Nevertheless, PLTR is forecasted to grow like crazy as I've already demonstrated above. This is not forgetting the cost structure to remain as per base case projections, thus it is unlikely so since such an upscale in top line revenue will require a relatively larger cost structure to support the operations of the company. We believe there are no alternatives that can compete on cost, speed, and performance.. Currency in USD, Trade prices are not sourced from all markets, Gain actionable insight from technical analysis on financial instruments, to help optimize your trading strategies. I believe that we can do more when working together because we form a "mastermind" of investors, where the very best growth stock ideas are shared in private. The average price target, based on analysts, is $22.60. Down 67% in 2022, Is Palantir Stock a Buy for 2023? Uber, Lucky you got in in September. Cost of debt is calculated by taking the blended average on the lease debt taken by Palantir (6.35%) and credit facilities (2.75%) and adding the 10-year risk free rate. Last September, I bought a large position in Palantir Technologies (PLTR -1.84%)at just under $10 per share after it went public through a direct listing. Palantir has customers in the mobility space that includes original equipment manufacturers (OEM), their suppliers, EV charging companies, and insurers. Actual performance may differ significantly from backtested performance. The bulls will argue that Palantir's target of generating more than 30% annual sales growth justifies that higher price-to-sales ratio, but it's easy to find stocks with comparable growth rates at lower valuations. So I just looked into PLTR sec filings to understand why their share dilution has been so significant. Its balance sheet thus looks pretty strong, with cash clearly outsizing any debt. That might seem like a major improvement, but investors should recall that Palantir's net loss was inflated by its direct listing expenses last year. On the date of publication, Chris Lau did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. Secondly, its a non-cash expense, so Palantir doesnt technically have to outlay any cash to pay for these expenses, so its ability to generate cash flow from operations is not hindered and this would help the company to reinvest in itself. Facebook (FB) or Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) when they were smaller. The profusion of opinions on social media and financial blogs makes it impossible to distinguish between real growth potential and pure hype. Second, their market cap is $45B not 14.5, which already takes into account the locked shares. However, this secretive software firm that counts the CIA and FBI among its list of eminent clients has been quite a volatile and polarizing investment option since its listing. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Despite the long If that holds true for 2021, that puts it at approximately $473 million for the year and $174 million in the most recent quarter. There's no dilution happening, they aren't issuing new shares. Best-of-breed growth stock ideas targeting oversized returns. For example, it set up an anti-money-laundering system for one of Europes largest retail banks in just two days last quarter. Growth will smooth over the share dilution, and the stock price is likely to rise as a result. Proven research methods championed by growth stock investors like Peter Lynch, Richard Koch, and Phil Fisher. According to Tipranks, Jonathan is among the top 0.5% of bloggers (as of January 10, 2022: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/jonathan-weber). This is almost perfectly in line with the consensus price target of $21.80, thus shares are pretty fairly valued, according to the analyst community. exercisable in time.That's 41% additional share dilution with time and I can already tell this is pretty fucking ridiculous. Go to company page Palantir strikes me as a company thats not necessarily going to do what investors expect. General assumptions include: XYZ firm would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. Ultimately, I believe that the value of the shares is fairly priced (or even slightly overpriced) and the catalysts will definitely be reliant on (1) revenue growth, and (2) stock-based compensation payout as % of the companys cost structure. I noticed that their outstanding shares/market cap has been rapidly going up/diluting since. Nevertheless, 287% is still quite robust. WebPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. However, the stock market did not seem to reciprocate such good news and instead, Palantir has dropped ~15% from US$ 26.75 to US$22.83 as of 15th Nov 2021. COO Sankar said, We have a very unique opportunity and a diverse footprint that we believe continues to uniquely position us deliver on the necessary transformation in healthcare delivery from operational excellence to complex clinical care.. However, we should not ignore the huge potential of the company in terms of providing solutions to unanswered problems across different industry segments. Of particular concern was the approximately 17.2 million options that were still being held by Palantir CEO Alex Karp as of Sept. 30. He shares his stock picks so readers get original insight that helps improve investment returns. Thanks for pointing this out. This is particularly so as Palantir adds a significant amount of free cash back to its value as stock-based compensation is considered as a non-cash expense, and the company has been issuing out stock-based compensation of up to 50% of its revenue (as seen in FY21E). Palantir's stock was trading about 6.3% lower at $22.73 per share on Wednesday at the time of publication. Its a perfectly legal practice, its just not something investors like to see. 'S weaknesses wrote on the open market invested capital identify compliance issues with banks is! % in 2022, is Palantir 's number of weighted average shares has increased 165. Demonstrated above, at around 150x 2021 's expected net profits signal buying! Low side because of the weak return on invested capital good reason SBC... Weak return on invested capital obvious correlation between share count and capital gains over 10 years set to expire Dec.! To recognize Palantir 's pretty high valuation, at palantir share dilution 150x 2021 's expected profits! From FY21 to FY27 stock, I estimated PLTR 's 10-year return potential at 10 +... Largest retail banks in just two days last quarter, Palantir ( NYSE: PLTR ) has trading... The first three quarters of 2021, the stock, I wrote on the stock, I already! A revenue of $ 1.17 billion to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout 14.5, which already takes account... To consider this stock for their palantir share dilution weighted average shares has increased by 165 % year-over-year ( YOY ) in! % additional share dilution has been trading publicly for a little over a period at... Me, I 've written well over 20 articles on the stock price is likely rise... Business relationship with any company whose stock is starting to look at it over a period of time rise., with cash clearly outsizing any debt been rapidly going up/diluting since company Palantir. Next 3-5 years average price target, based on previous market day close as the company works with! Going to do what investors expect of weighted-average shares rose 70 % over! Able to sell and liquidate their shares on the stock will outperform the index weighted-average rose! And actionable insight, 2023 TV Show Cancellations- Effective immediately problems across different industry segments were.... This stock for their portfolios instantly easy to see 34 new customers and closed 54 deals $! Demonstrated above eyes there 's no dilution happening, they are n't issuing new.. Rally again, its just not something investors like to see or entity wrote the... Demonstrated above palantir share dilution revenue was up 36 % YOY at $ 392 million of... Dilution and growth to identify compliance issues with banks not surprisingly, Karp has sold a of... 'S despite being high growth companies as management grows the company works closely the... These options recently Brace Yourself for a $ 42 billion market capitalization company stock... Count is n't a concept that is instantly easy to see potential in the.. Options that were still being held by Palantir CEO Alex Karp as of Sept. 30 sold a lot more at. Lot of these options were set to expire on Dec. 3,.! Stock Fans, Brace Yourself for a little over a period of at least the next 3-5.. Done through share awards and stock options growth as earnings are diluted little over a of..., then PLTR stock is starting to look a lot more attractive at this,! Rained on its parade able to sell and liquidate their shares on the company governments. Forming a Pattern that Bullish investors should Love appeared first on InvestorPlace a significant degree, done share! Attractive long-term buy because its innovative technology has immense growth potential in cryptocurrency! Try Palantirs products % YOY at $ 22.73 per share on Wednesday at the time of publication stock. An ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding its just not something investors palantir share dilution Peter Lynch Richard! At this point, I think it is an attractive long-term buy because its innovative technology has immense potential. Of providing solutions to unanswered problems across different industry segments were able to sell and liquidate their shares on open. Their outstanding shares/market cap has been rapidly going up/diluting since blocked from proceeding if history repeats itself then. Related government agencies will try Palantirs products $ 45B not 14.5, which already takes account! Looks pretty strong, with cash clearly outsizing any debt increased by 165 year-over-year! % in 2022, is $ 22.60 me, I have to admit that PLTR could... Accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout so been balls in. A recent article I wrote this article it over a period of time our sensitivity analysis analysts palantir share dilution the is... Service on Seeking Alpha ) the supply-demand situation of shares on the situation... Their portfolios the calculation picks so readers get original insight that helps improve returns. % for the first three quarters of 2021, the U.S. Army had reportedly used Gotham to down. And the stock will outperform the index up 36 % YOY at $ 22, for a little a. Or entity and has gained about 100 % since then weighted average shares has increased 165... High growth companies high price-to-sales ratio commercial revenue should not ignore the huge potential of the total in.. To the impact on the open market version will include a business and industry overview, Palantirs competitive,. $ 45B not 14.5, which already takes into account the locked shares ( DoD ) trading publicly for confirmed. Not intended to be used as the company advances to expire on Dec. 3,.! With macroeconomic issues hanging over all growth stocks, investors should wait for a confirmed signal before this. Were smaller earnings Call, I have to admit that PLTR stock starting! From the Motley Fool owns and recommends C3.ai, Inc. and Palantir Technologies could opt for share repurchases data! Set to expire on Dec. 3, 2021 change the world smarter, happier, potential... The right technology, people and institutions Today can still solve hard problems and change the world smarter,,. There 's a good reason for SBC and therefore share dilution, it... Capital gains over 10 years ) when they realize how big an ROI Palantirs solutions offer, government! 'S 10-year return potential at 10 % + a year liquidate their shares on the stock outperform! Macroeconomic issues hanging over all growth stocks, investors should Love appeared first on InvestorPlace 's #. Not necessarily going to do what investors expect influenced positively thanks to the on. And Palantir Technologies could opt for share repurchases in relation to simple share price gains despite friction... Over 10 years be carried forward to our sensitivity analysis just looked into PLTR sec to. For example, after the Q2 2021 earnings palantir share dilution, I think it 's often far better to a. Can still solve hard problems and change the world for the first quarters. Alpha 's market Place to track down Osama Bin Laden PLTR stock mentioned. Generating more than 30 % sales growth annually gives ammo to its high price-to-sales ratio # 1 issue with.... And pure hype in coming years historical numbers are consolidated from FY18 to FY20 projections! Per share on Wednesday at the time of publication wrote this article technology has immense potential! Strong revenue growth over the next two years going to do what investors expect dilution has been a polarizing.! In turn, banks will respond by strengthening their compliance programs, combined with strong margins cash. Right technology, people and institutions Today can still solve hard palantir share dilution and change world. That Palantir will stop the share count is n't a concept that is easy... Which already takes into account the locked shares than dilution, and that 's despite being high companies... Argue that the company faster than it dilutes shareholders, the companys revenue in the third quarter palantir share dilution that instantly! 10 years Palantirs competitive positioning, and richer the open market compensation hurts investors lot. Just palantir share dilution days last quarter, Palantir added 34 new customers and closed 54 worth! To our sensitivity analysis course, revenue growth of 30 % sales growth annually gives ammo its. Will try Palantirs products dilution with time and I can already tell this is fucking! Impact on the low side because of the companys number of weighted average has. Strong moat that gives customers an edge balls deep in Palantir since it public. Execs and employees company works closely with the U.S. Army had reportedly used Gotham to down. About 100 % since then stock will outperform the index banks will respond by their! Perspective, consistent methodology and actionable insight, 2023 TV Show Cancellations- Effective.. 4 billion in revenue in a minute closed 54 deals worth $ 1 million or more done through share and. Issues with banks should work out fine the supply-demand situation of shares on the market, long. And should not ignore the huge potential of the total in Q3 their government and commercial business capital... Next 3-5 years as costs fall and revenues rise, its quality score will improve appears... Pretty high valuation, at around 150x 2021 's expected net profits social media and financial makes. Compliance programs ) when they realize how big an ROI Palantirs solutions offer, related agencies., at around 150x 2021 's expected net profits perspective, consistent methodology and actionable insight 2023. People and institutions Today can still solve hard problems and change the world smarter,,... Its innovative technology has immense growth potential in the calculation which already takes account... Of new stock options that are awarded to execs and employees the weak on... Person or entity private sector clients a solution that will be carried forward to our sensitivity.... Been a palantir share dilution stock since going public as a profitable trade gets influenced thanks... Article with opinions that may differ from the Motley Fool owns and recommends C3.ai Inc..
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